Friday, April 24, 2009

Perfect Timing For Montreal Makeover

What was to be a historic season for the Montreal Canadiens turned into one many would like to forget. Lots of promise gave way to pressure, which ultimately was something the team could not handle.

As a result, major changes this off-season are to be expected for the Habs as they clean out a roster that got it’s clock cleaned by the Boston Bruins.

Lineup: After performing the way they did, change is inevitable. The coach already paid the price for losing and its likely now the players turn to take blame. Thankfully the team is fortunate enough to have a mountain of free agents to simply let go, giving them a nice clean fresh slate to start with.

F: Higgins, Plekanec, Kostitsyn, Latendresse, Lapierre, Metropolit, Laraque
D: Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik
G: Price, Halak
Depth:
F: Kostitsyn, Stewart, Desharnais, Trotter, Russell
D: Belle, Carle, Valentenko
G: Desjardins

Goal: Price needs a boost in confidence. He has phenomenal talent, but it needs to be sharpened a bit. The real work however needs to be done on his mental makeup as he appeared timid, lost and very shaky in goal. The mocking and booing by the home fans did not help matters. He did have injury issues where he seemed not the same upon returning, but clearly, confidence is the big problem.

Key stat: Price had .843 save percentage when Habs shorthanded.

The presence of an experienced backup who can spell him from time to time, but not completely threaten his position as starter may best suit the Habs needs. While Halak is a talented goalie himself, a mentor like backup makes so much more sense.

Defence: There will be roster spots open with some likely departures but regardless, the team needs help in this area. They have a strong player in Markov to build around. He is a horse and a guy the Habs sorely missed in the post season. He was second in the league in defence scoring and their biggest cog in all situations.

What they could use is a secondary scorer to support him, especially working the right point on the PP. The loss of Streit and Souray in back to back season was too much for this team who seems to get a pep in their step when the PP is rolling.

There is also a need to add more jam to the blueline. It was far too often that Komisarek was the only willing combatant this season making the Habs zone easy access for opponents. Now, he could be lost via free agency with no one ready to step in.

Key stat: 31.7 shots against per game for 7th worst in the NHL.

Forward: Going into the year, the Habs were hopeful to have 3 big scoring lines that would cause opponents fits. Instead, their play gave the coaching staff fits with inconsistency. Too many forwards were either hurt too often or had significant down years. It completely led to the team’s season long malaise that resulted in a major breakdown of the Habs speed game.

Key Stat: One forward (Kovalev) had over 50 points. Koivu was 2nd with 50 points exactly

Without the fleet forwards moving well, their big weakness of a lack of size, grit and physicality up front was telling. It will be something the team must address in two straight playoffs the team was dominated, overwhelmed and rattled by bigger, stronger opponents.

Not to toot the horn of Don Cherry, but really this team lacks hard nosed Canadians who maybe would take more pride in the jersey and show a bit more heart, more battle, more desire in their game. The majority of Habs were floaters this past year and they paid for it dearly.

Leadership: Gainey finished the year behind the bench and it remains to be seen if he will be the guy who finds his replacement. The ownership uncertainty should perhaps buy Gainey some time. He is still the best person for the job and the Habs really need his patience to get through these trying times. But if he stays he has a tall order to retool this team from top to bottom.

Hiring an experienced coach makes the most sense. The past 5 coaches since Jacques Demers have been rookies who have not gotten the job done. There are worthy candidates like a Bob Hartley or even Marc Crawford or possibly even Jacques Lemaire.

Leadership also needs to be addressed on the ice. They may very well need a new captain and supporting cast to change up the team’s chemistry.

Off-Season
Payroll: 23.5 mil
UFA: Koivu, Lang, Bouillon, Brisebois, Dandenault, Henry, Janik, Komisarek, Schnieder, Denis, Tanguay, Kostopoulos, Kovalev, Glumac, Leroux, Kemp, Flinn
RFA: Chipchura, Higgins, Plekanec, Stewart, D’Agostini, Latendresse

Cap space will not be an issue with 10 regulars having expired contracts. But that also means a large chunk of the roster needs filling. But with 30 million or so to spend, the Habs will have the flexibility to be aggressive in acquiring players both via trade and free agency. They may see their cap space drop having to re-up their RFAs. But there stands a good chance the likes of Higgins and Plekanec have played their last games as Canadiens.

The only UFA who seems likely to return is Tanguay who was productive when healthy. But Captain Koivu is a questionmark considering his age and perhaps the need for the Habs for a new voice and fresh leaders in the room. Komisarek is another questionmark as he didn’t play well but some team may very well overpay him as a stay at home defenceman.

Possibilities:

Trade Options: The Lecavalier to Montreal rumours will not die until it happens. But with the bad mouthing going on between the two GMs, its likely a deal will not be consumated.

Other forwards the Habs should potentially look at are Brad Richards, Nathan Horton and/ Wojtek Wolski. Richards has struggled some the last couple of years and has a massive contract, but would be a major upgrade to what the Habs have now and may not cost Montreal a "Lecavalier" package due to his cap hit. Horton is the ideal PF the team could use as a combination of size with skill is a major need for Montreal. Wolski is not as bruising as Horton but has good size with skill and would help Montreal be more difficult to knock off the puck.

On defence, players like Scott Hannan or Garnet Exelby are players this team could use. More grit, toughness, passion. The Habs need more battle in their game. And if they cant find one via free agency, a veteran netminder would help big time.

Free Agency Options: Everyone's common choice has been Francois Beauchemin. Whether he wishes to return the the organization that gave up on him remains to be seen. But he is a quality minute munching defenceman who can contribute at both ends.

Other options include Steve Veilleux and Ian Laperriere up front. They would add some grit. Possibly Manny Fernandez could be the quality vet the Habs could use to support Price.

The Draft

The Habs will pick anywhere in the mid to late teens and should find a decent prospect.
Draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th, cond. 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th

Some potential players available could include:
John Moore (D) – Offensive Dman off to US college next year.
Peter Holland (F) – 2way pivot has size, speed and skill, Ave PPG in OHL
Landon Ferraro (F) – Small centre has good bloodlines
Carter Ashton (F) – Power forward type also with good bloodlines
Zach Kassian (F) – Another PF type just what Habs need.

Top Prospects:Ben Maxwell C, Ryan White C, Kyle Chipchura C, Ryan McDonagh D, P.K. Subban D, David Fischer D, Alexei Yemelin D, Yannick Weber D, Max Pacioretty LW, Danny Kristo RW, Matt D'Agostini RW, Steve Quailer RW

A good number of their top prospects could challenge for jobs next season. Pacioretty and D’Agostini got playing time thanks to their size and willingness to use it. Defintiely a top six spot awaits one of these two. The organization would like to see “Pacman” put the puck in the next more as he had just 6 goals in 37 contests in Hamilton. But he fills a major void on the parent club.

Maxwell has a chance to at least score a 3rd or 4th line centre role. He didn’t do much in his first taste of NHL duty but had a solid 1st pro year and should challenge for a roster spot. Chipchura is on his last legs to make the Habs for good.

Weber also has an inside track on one of the open Dmen spots. He has a huge shot and with experience, could be a big factor in helping the team’s PP. His first ever goal came in the playoffs. It is also possible PK Subban, the star for Canada at the WJC could make the team. But knowing Gainey, a trip to Hamilton for a bit will not hurt Subban and help his defensive game. He too has impact potential offensively.

The Habs will happily be patient with their top prospect in McDonagh. His name has come up often as trade bait as not only Montreal likes his skating, skills and smarts. It will be interesting to see if he dons a Habs jersey ever.

Outlook: Despite the desolete feeling from the fans, all is not lost for Les Habitants. They have cap space to work with, they can get rid of several players as they see fit this summer and they have youth on their side with some solid prospects to build around and a top blueliner in his prime. An experienced coach this time around may be the big tonic this team needs. But if this coach cannot bring Price back to life, the start of the second hundred years for the Habs could be a rough one.

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